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Host: North Korea's recently revised constitution, which boosts King Jong-un as a nuclear authority, and Pyongyang's continued support for Russia's war in Ukraine on display at Moscow's victory parade this year, are but two warning signs that Europe has a strategic blind spot about what it can no longer dismiss as an obscure shut-off dictatorship in the Indo-Pacific. You're listening to the latest podcast from the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, or SWP for short, here in Berlin. In today's episode, we'll unpick North Korea's growing security threat to Europe, ask why it appears to have gone unnoticed, and what Europe and NATO can do about it. I'm your host, Esme Nicholson, and to discuss the nature of North Korea's threats, from its intensifying alliance with Russia and its extensive cyber warfare capabilities, I'm joined today by Eric Ballbach, SWP's Korea Foundation Fellow. In addition to his research, Eric's expertise has been put to use in numerous informal dialogues between North Korea, South Korea, and the United States. Eric, thank you for coming into the studio today.

Eric Ballbach: Thank you so much for having me.

Host: I'd like to start by getting a sense of how North Korea has changed in recent years, and why it no longer poses just an Indo-Pacific problem, but increasingly a European one.

Eric Ballbach: I think it's absolutely crucial to acknowledge that the North Korea of today is not the North Korea of 2018-2019, when we last dealt with Pyongyang diplomatically. It has fundamentally changed its foreign policy strategy, also its security strategy, and this changed, followed what the North Koreans deemed as the failure of diplomacy, especially summit diplomacy with the U.S. We all remember the three summit meetings between Kim Jong-un and Donald Trump during his first term. And the failure of Hanoi, the failure of the Hanoi summit, ultimately led to a fundamental revision of North Korea's foreign and security strategy. In terms of foreign policy, this meant that it stopped diplomacy with the U.S., but also with South Korea, and as we will discuss probably later, also with Europe. And in terms of security strategy, Kim Jong-un announced in January 2021, a so-called five-year military modernization plan. So a wish list of what Kim Jong-un deemed important to turn the country into what they describe now as a fortified nuclear power.

Host: These are the changes to the constitution, are they?

Eric Ballbach: Part of it, yes. The changes to the constitutions are part of it. In 2022, North Korea announced a new nuclear doctrine that basically lowered the threshold of any given nuclear power to a degree we have never seen before. It's also delegated power in terms of who is actually able in North Korea to basically say when a nuclear weapon should be used or not. And all of these revisions basically are part of this new foreign and security strategy. And that also made North Korea a greater threat to Europe because one of the elements, of course, was that North Korea changed its diplomacy away from the U.S. and South Korea and Europe and towards China and mainly Russia.

Host: Well, and as mentioned, North Korean soldiers marched alongside Russian troops in Moscow at this year's victory parade in Russia. Beyond the symbolism, how would you define the Putin-Kim partnership right now?

Eric Ballbach: Well, I would say that this cooperation between North Korea and Russia has evolved from tactical alignment more to something much more operational now. It is still transactional at its core, but it's increasingly strategic in scope. And that is crucial to understand. It's not so much an ideologically based cooperation. It is a win-win situation. North Korea has something to offer what the Russians need and vice versa. The Russians needed political support for their war against Ukraine. They needed military support in terms of ammunition, missiles, but also troops, manpower. And the North Koreans, in turn, needed food, energy assistance, but also support in its strategic military programs, especially when we talk about re-entry technology of intercontinental ballistic missiles, but also nuclear-powered submarines. All of these are connected now to closer cooperation with Russia.

Host: Well, with North Korean soldiers fighting on European soil, the threat is becoming more obvious to Europe. So tell me what exactly it is that Pyongyang is getting out of its support for Russia in its war against Ukraine.

Eric Ballbach: For the North Koreans, I would say there are economic, political, strategic, and military benefits to support Russia economically. Of course, we know about the deliveries of weapons. And we think that North Korea, of course, gained dramatic financial gains from this. There are some estimates that have put the total revenues of over 500 million solely from the deployment of troops, with others saying more than 10 billions they made from selling those weapons. So this is significant. But apart from the actual number here, I would say North Korea also gained politically and strategically. For years, they have engaged in denuclearization dialogues with the U.S., mainly with the objective of weakening international sanctions. They have now achieved the weakening of the sanctions regime without giving anything on the denuclearization issue, only through strategic cooperation with Russia. And Russia vetoed the mandate for the panel of experts in the U.N. Security Council, which basically meant that supervisions of sanctions implementation drastically decreased. So they achieved one of their main strategic objectives through this closer cooperation with Russia. They also achieved political support for their military modernization, with the Russian foreign minister even saying there is no need for denuclearization dialogue with the North Koreans anymore, because North Korea is now a de facto nuclear power. So achieving one of those strategic aims as well. And of course, ultimately, there are also military benefits. The war in Ukraine serves as a testing ground for North Korea's ammunition, weapons and personnel. Those weapons used by the Russians against Ukraine, this information about their war capability are funneled back, of course, to North Korea. They use this information to further perfect their weapons system. North Korean soldiers gaining active war fighting experience, especially in a more modern war scenario where drones are used heavily and relied upon. But ultimately, of course, we see a lot of signs that Russia also supports North Korea in turn militarily, giving strategic advice to some of those aspects that the North Koreans have not yet perfected themselves, and that is mainly re-entry technology of ballistic missiles, reconnaissance satellites, one of which have been now actively deployed, successfully deployed by the North Koreans. And we have signs that the Russians support the North Koreans in terms of building up a nuclear-powered submarine fleet.

Host: And of course, North Korea is not just a nuclear threat. It has become one of the biggest cyber threats to Europe, as I understand it. How cognizant is Brussels and the broader public about this? And tell us maybe a little bit more about what is already happening and what Pyongyang is targeting in terms of cyber security.

Eric Ballbach: You know, to be perfectly honest, I still think that most policymakers still struggle to accept that North Korea has become an equal nation in terms of cyber capabilities. We still hear a lot about this reputation of Pyongyang being an isolated and underdeveloped state. But Pyongyang has implemented a comprehensive program to advance cyber technology and systematically cultivate human capital around this. There is, of course, no official data on the structure of the various advanced persistent threat groups in North Korea. But it has been estimated that the DPRK cyber army consists of roughly 7,000 specialists, all working under the direction of the Reconnaissance General Bureau, which is in a way the core of North Korea's cyber strategy. And only throughout 2024, just to give you an impression of how deep this actually goes, only in 2024, DPRK IT workers have significantly expanded their operations beyond the U.S., now increasingly targeting organizations across Europe with increased targeting of companies in Germany, Portugal, and the U.K. And in its threat security, in a threat landscape in 2025, in which the EU's Agency for Cyber Security identifies the most significant cyber threats to Europe, North Korea is ranked now as the third largest threat to Europe, following only Russia and China. I would say overall, North Korea's cyber operations in and against Europe can be divided into two main categories. These are financially motivated attacks, such as cryptocurrency thefts, and the other being cyber espionage.

Host: Right, so cyber crime and espionage.

Eric Ballbach: Exactly. For example, North Korean cyber actors target various institutions in Europe linked to, for example, the defense sector, but also the health and energy sector. They attack various government-linked agencies. In the past, we saw effects of North Korean cyber attacks on the German railway system, on individual companies, and especially defense companies have become primarily targeted, because South Korea now, of course, is a very active provider of defense goods to Europe. Vice versa, for example, German defense companies export weapons system to South Korea, which South Korea then uses in its defensive strategy against North Korea. So the North Koreans want to know what's behind it. Also to develop technology to circumvent these systems, and especially missile defense systems. So Europe has become one of the primary targets by now by North Korean cyber actors.

Host: I'd like to come in a minute to what the solutions are, what Europe can do and should be doing about all of these threats that North Korea poses. But specifically on cyber security, how resilient is Europe to cyber security threats, in particular from North Korea, considering it's a fairly new threat?

Eric Ballbach: You know, our resiliency is certainly not where it should be. And that also is a result that North Korean activities in Europe are not these, let's say, one of big operations that have been reported everywhere. It's small scale attacks, low key attacks, but very broadly. And how deep it goes, I can give you an example. It's sometimes hard to believe that in late 2024, there was an IT worker from North Korea. This is one of their schemes to use online platforms to get basically into European companies through fake IDs. And there was one North Korean case known. He had at the same time 12 different identities throughout the US and Europe, trying to get into employment at European defense companies, but also government-linked institutions. That, of course, is one of the main entry points for the North Koreans. Once they are in, they're in. You know, they try to install software that gives them permanent access to these institutions. They use schemes then basically to gather information within the institutions and then use these informations against those companies, for example. They attack a lot of the cryptocurrency trades also in Europe, making millions and millions with these schemes. And they use a vast network also of friendly cooperation partners, especially now also in Russia. We have increased information that Russia and North Korea cooperate also on cyber issues now with Russians giving North Koreans access into certain networks. And all of this is, of course, extremely dangerous, considering the fact that to North Korea, this is all part of a larger strategy. Cyber has become part of their geopolitical, of their security strategy. And the money they make through, for example, cryptocurrency heists directly funds their military modernization.

Host: Right. Okay. So Europe is inadvertently part of and supporting and financing their military goals. And through it also Russia's war in Ukraine. Well, all these threats are surely a wake-up call for Brussels, for NATO, for European governments, for policymakers. To what extent are they aware? Are they already acting? And what should be done? What can be done?

Eric Ballbach: Look, a lot of things are already done. I still think that overall that European officials have not heard this wake-up call just yet, especially when with regard to North Korea's cyber threat. What we can target, of course, are the mechanisms through which North Korea and Russia jointly try to circumvent sanctions, for example, because this is one of the things that bound them together. And this is why we see that this cooperation goes way beyond military issues nowadays. What we already do, and I think this is a very good sign, for example, that the German intelligence service and the South Korean intelligence service have two times now issued joint cybersecurity advisories with regard to North Korean cyber threats. But these are more one of things. I think what needs to be done much more is a much deeper intelligence sharing. But to do this, we need certain agreements in place, which we don't have yet in place because South Korea is neither a NATO nor a EU member, of course. So we need agreements like structural freedom of information security agreements, which then allows us to go much deeper in terms of intelligence sharing. And this is absolutely crucial, given that North Korean soldiers are supporting, are the most active supporter of Russia's war in Europe, given that North Korea is so active on the cyber front against and in Europe. And the fact that we still don't have all these intelligence sharing agreements in place is quite unusual, I think, because the EU, for example, has such agreements in place with non-EU members. Think about Canada or Japan. But we need something like this also with the South Koreans. This would be one of the things on the to-do list in a way. The other one being to be much stricter against North Korean cyber operations. This is difficult, of course, to achieve. But again, with life intelligence sharing, all of this becomes much more realistic to achieve.

Host: Well, and zooming out, because Europe, of course, doesn't act in a bubble, and also returning to the point you made about how North Korea has changed since the Hanoi summit with Trump. To what extent does U.S. foreign policy in the region help or even hinder Europe right now?

Eric Ballbach: Well, we don't have a clear North Korea strategy from the U.S. just yet. There are still many observers that expect a return, at least that's probably on Donald Trump's wish list, a return of these summit meetings. But, you know, in my view, this would be a case of be careful what you wish for, because ultimately where we are right now is not least one of the effects of the failed summit diplomacy between Donald Trump and Kim Jong-Un in the first place. So, and now, of course, North Korea, as we mentioned earlier, is a very different actor. It has gained strategic leverage through Russia's war against Ukraine, which, in my view, I would even say that North Korea's revised foreign and security strategy only worked due to those geopolitical changes. They were only successfully implemented because Russia started this war against Ukraine, of which North Korea is one of the, I would say, strategic benefiters of this war of aggression.

Host: So, while anxiety about Russia shows no sign of abating, Europe now also has its work cut out to address the growing threat from even further afield. Eric, we will no doubt return to you for more analysis on how that goes. But for today, I'd like to thank you for shedding fresh light onto an issue Europe appears to only just be beginning to grasp. You can find links to Eric's latest work in the podcast show notes. And if you like what you hear, you can subscribe to us in the usual places, including Spotify and Apple. You can also keep up to date with the latest analyses from SWP on Blue Sky and on LinkedIn. Today's episode was brought to you by our editor, Maya Dähne, and by me, your host, and, of course, by our guest, Eric Ballbach. So, until next time, it's goodbye from all of us here in the SWP studio. Thank you for tuning in.