Debating Trump 2.0 and implications for Africa – “Trump’s engagement in the Somaliland-Somalia stalemate will be a breakthrough”

Megatrends Afrika: How is the new Trump administration being discussed in Somaliland?

Mr. Abdirisak M. Shaqale: Somaliland has been looking very positively upon the new U.S. administration. It is important to understand that, because Somaliland does not enjoy international recognition, it has never been part of any multilateral arrangements, for example the African Union (AU), the Arab League, or the UN. For that reason, Trump's transactional approach can be a win for Somaliland in two ways. First, President Trump’s Middle East policy prioritizes reinforcing alliances against Iran and the Houthi militia. Somaliland could play an important role in this quest, possibly through expanding the Abraham Accords. The latter are a recent bilateral peace agreement between the UAE, a key U.S. partner in the region, and Israel, initiated during Trump’s first tenure. To advance Trump’s quest on countering Iranian geopolitical ambitions in the region, it is likely that he ties U.S. recognition of Somaliland’s sovereignty to such a possible expansion of alliances, leveraging it as a tool to advance containment strategies. 

Secondly, the balance of power in the international system has shifted from unipolarity to multipolarity, especially with Chinese expansion in global trade and security. China has significantly invested in infrastructure throughout sub-Saharan Africa. For instance, trade between China and Africa surged from USD 50 billion in 2005 to USD 208 billion in 2019. Notably, the Horn of Africa has become integral to China’s Belt and Road Initiative, with significant investments aimed at facilitating trade from the Djibouti port via a trade corridor to Ethiopia. This maritime infrastructure project not only illustrates the geopolitical shifts in the region but also motivated the UAE-owned DP World to invest USD 420 million in Berbera port and its corridor to Ethiopia. With the recent Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) between Somaliland and Ethiopia, Ethiopia’s over-reliance in trade via the Chinese-controlled port of Djibouti is supposed to be lessened and the trade via the port of Berbera and its corridor is supposed to be maximised. Thus, the Trump administration alongside its Quad partners might seek to invest in a better trade corridor to Ethiopia and take the opportunity to counterbalance the Chinese initiative in the Horn of Africa.

So, under these conditions, I think Trump will likely recognize Somaliland, as long as the new Somaliland government succeeds in acting upon these issues. 

Megatrends Afrika: How do policymakers in Somaliland perceive the situation?

Mr. Abdirisak M. Shaqale: Policymakers, as well as social media and the general public of Somaliland, have been very positive despite frustration from the rest of the world when it comes to Trump. I was surprised to see so many of our partners and friends in Europe panicking when Trump’s vice president JD Vance was talking at the Munich Security Conference. I don't see the reason as to why European leaders would panic about that, because we were expecting that, if Trump comes to power, he will return to the MAGA-playbook of his first administration.

Megatrends Afrika: Where do you see the biggest challenges and opportunities for Somaliland now and in the medium term as a result of the change in US policy? 

Mr. Abdirisak M. Shaqale: One of the biggest challenges we still have are Houthi attacks on ships in the Red Sea. More than 10 per cent of the total world trade passes the Red Sea on the way to European markets. The attacks are tremendously impacting the European and German economy: a container carrier that goes to Germany now needs more fossil fuel, the equivalent of USD 1 million, due to the detour it is taking. Besides the fact that this contradicts the Paris agreement and the green transformation of the EU, it poses challenges to Somaliland since Berbera port and its critical infrastructure will be a target for Houthi missiles if Somaliland hosts and allows the US and its coalition against the Houthi to operate its coastline bases.

Another challenge lies in the current dynamics surrounding Morocco and Western Sahara. While Morocco claims the territory as its own, Western Sahara is recognized as an independent state and holds membership in the AU. Recently, following Morocco’s normalization of ties with Israel, the US and other global powers have intensified efforts to legitimize Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara. Such recognition would contravene the AU’s founding principles, compromise its strategic autonomy, and disregard the sovereignty of its member states. A similar scenario could play out in Somaliland if Somalia were to normalize relations with Israel in exchange for U.S. endorsement of its claim over Somaliland’s territory. 

These will be the challenges, but I also see opportunities which Somaliland offers counterbalancing the Chinese trade corridor in Djibouti, accessing rare earth minerals that can be found in Somaliland and could be used by the US, UK, EU, Germany and Quad partners, and hybrid fishing since Somaliland controls 840km on the coast, just in front of Yemen. 

Further, Taiwan and Somaliland have been good partners since 2020, and as we have seen a couple of weeks ago, Trump was welcoming a Taiwanese semiconductor production company at the White House as the company announced their new investment of USD 100 billion. In the future, Somaliland could play a major role in the connection between the US foreign policy in Africa and US foreign policy in the Indo-Pacific, since these foreign policy strategies interconnect at the coastal East African states, where Berbera port plays a crucial role. 

And finally, I see challenges and opportunities regarding counterterrorism. The president of Somalia chose to divert the finances from the international community to undermine the Jubaland and Puntland states of Somalia. Instead of committing to counterterrorism, he wants to advance his agenda, to prolong power and the grip of authoritarianism. The international community has invested a lot in Mogadishu’s fight against terrorism and the never-ending cycle of instability in Somalia. Trump will likely be unhappy about a double standard of Somalia’s president tightening his grip on power while not doing anything against terrorism and the expansion of al-Shabaab. 

Therefore, I do believe Trump’s engagement in the Somaliland-Somalia stalemate will result in a breakthrough since the cuts to US aid which was funding Somalia’s security and stability will be decreased and Trump will engage more on U. S. national security interest such as cooperation with Somaliland.

Finally, it all depends on how the Somaliland leadership navigates these uncharted waters in the context of the changing global order and such as Somaliland realignment with US strategic interests and those of the EU and Germany in the Horn of Africa and the Red Sea.

Megatrends Afrika: How would you expect Germany and the EU to reposition themselves in the changing context?

Mr. Abdirisak M. Shaqale: One important action that Europe and Germany need to take to reposition themselves in a changing global order is to have a more pragmatic relationship with the African continent. 

First, Europe should have more trade partnerships with African countries rather than just aid, because this will encourage African countries to produce more and will further increase African states’ financial contribution to the AU 2063 agenda. Africa is the continent with the youngest population on earth. If we fail to invest in those emerging markets on the African continent, then we will never have a stable political system in Europe, where economic migration coming from Africa negatively impacts the political stability in Europe, where the radical far right and populist parties are gaining votes from a lack of proper strategy to halt illegal immigration.

Second, Europe should refrain from pressuring African states on international security matters in the regional and multilateral forums, such as the vote against Russia on the Russia-Ukraine war. Europe needs to understand that African countries have their own strategic priorities, their local realities, which they must adapt to and align with their economic and security priorities. Due to global dynamics, African agency is shifting from a reflection-based response to a more proactive response to international crises. 

Therefore, the EU and the new German government should adopt a more realistic and pragmatic way to deal with African countries in general and the Somaliland government in particular. 

Abdirisak M. Shaqale is a former Senior Strategic Advisor to Somaliland, and currently serves as the Director of Horasa Center, working on research and strategic advisory with a focus on trade, geopolitics, security and humanitarian as well as climate change issue in the Horn of Africa region. https://www.horasa.org/  

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