Security challenges in the Caucasus and Central Asia

The issue of fighting international terrorism and post-conflict rebuilding in Afghanistan is far from over. Together with Holland, Germany took the lead of the international security assistance force (ISAF) in Kabul. There is a manifest concern in Europe and in Central Asia, that the USA might forget about Afghanistan while focussing on Iraq and thus increasing the security threats for the Central Asian states. The German magazine 'Der Spiegel' claimed on 17 February that the United States "has practically ceased" its efforts to capture Osama bin Laden in Afghanistan and has withdrawn to Iraq all Special Forces units. Along with the U.S. Special Forces, British and Australian special-forces troops have also left the antiterrorism coalition and have left behind "infantry that is less effective in combat." The approximately 100 German special-forces troops who are deployed in Afghanistan reportedly are "rather alone". At the same time, Germany's BND intelligence service has reported that new Chinesemade missiles are being smuggled into the country. The Chinese missiles are reportedly more accurate than the outdated Russian-made missiles currently available in Afghanistan. German authorities in Kabul are taking the dangers posed by this constellation very seriously. Another potential threat to regional security might stem from current and future US containment policies. One of the constant features of US foreign policy in the Caspian region is the containment of Iran. Needless to say that regional security in the Caucasus and in Central Asia will need Iranian inclusion. However, to exclude a regional player will mean to prevent an effective security system. The same potential danger might develop over time in Central Asia if the US should wish to start containing China there. Having raised the topic of Iran, it remains to be seen what consequences for the Caspian region and regional security the Iranian inclusion into President Bush's "axis of evil" will have.

The next problematic issue connected with the region is the future role of NATO itself. The US seemingly is very interested in extending NATO's reach and role to the Caucasus and Central Asia, while the Europeans fear that such an enlargement could devaluate NATO in a kind of second OSCE and thus leading to a security crisis in Europe. The majority of Foreign Minister Fischers's European colleagues are sharing the view that the Bush administration, although not intending to destroy NATO, is actively working towards the goal of devaluating NATO to a "quantité négligeable" by inflating the alliance all the way down to irrelevancy. Officially, Fischer is declining such views, while he internally seems to be convinced that this will be the road ahead.

Getting back to regional security in the Caucasus and in Central Asia, one thing seems very clear: one can't organize security from outside, if the countries inside the regions are setting the wrong course. There is no chance for longterm stabilization as long as the shortterm destabilizing forces that are setting the wrong course inside these countries are supported in order to achieve another goal. There is a certain danger that due to higher-ranking interests in fighting international terrorism or creating another coalition of the willing, the US - and not only they - might act counterproductive in this regard.