Security challenges in the Caucasus and Central Asia

Jürgen Schmidt

Security challenges in the Caucasus and Central Asia -
A German and European perspective

Paper presented at the German-U.S Conference - Conflicts in the Greater Middle East and the Transatlantic Relationship in Jena, Feb.28 / March 1, 2003

Working paper of Research Unit Russian Federation / CIS of SWP, 2003/ Nr.03, March 2003

Working papers are papers in the subject area of a Research Unit, which are not officially published by SWP. These papers are either preliminary studies that later become papers published by SWP or papers that are published elsewhere. Your comments are always welcome.

As 20 minutes are not that long to cover a topic including European actors, a region stretching from the Black Sea to Afghanistan, and potential trans-atlantic implications, please forgive me for getting to the point without further charming remarks other than to thank the chairman for admittance to the floor.

So is there a specific European and/or German perspective based on strategic approaches towards the region of analysis? If so, how would that interact with American approaches, and would these interactions have trans-atlantic implications? First off, there is the need to identify the regional and external dynamics of security challenges. Looking at the Caucasus and Central Asia as one regional complex including Russia, the three South Caucasian and five Central Asian former soviet republics, the main challenges from within are:

1. Regional destabilization by the Chechen war and frozen conflicts in Abkhazia, South Ossetia and Karabakh. The second Chechen war is a litmus test for Putin, has a dangerous spill-over potential, and has been highjacked by international terrorist networks for their cause. At the same time there are the three unrecognised breakaway states adding to the security challenges by keeping low-key daily violence on the spot, creating huge refugee burdens, and undermining the legitimacy and functioning of the metropolitan states.
2. Growing authoritarianism of 'state gone mafia' Soviet-era power structures governing the countries. The U.S.-led campaign in Afghanistan has encouraged authoritarian tendencies in the countries ruled by Soviet-era networks based on informal contacts and personal networks to obtain goods and services. Political opposition is virtually banned in some countries, while opposition party leaders are subject to intimidation or arrest in others. Finally, state, business and criminal actors have merged irrecognizably and caused a situation that plagues efforts to introduce democratic and economic reform. Despite some success in macroeconomic stabilization, the living standards of the average citizen throughout the region have dramatically decreased over the last 10 years.
3. Ethnic makeup and unsolved border conflicts as a key element of security dynamics. The population of roughly 80 million in Central Asia, North and South Caucasus can be broken down in more than 100 different ethnic and even more language groups. An intensification of intraethnic discord along regional and tribal lines can be observed, with economic disparities playing a significant role, as more deprived regions or clans try to challenge their more wealthy counterparts. Arbitrary soviet border demarcation is complicating the situation especially in the densely populated Central Asian Fergana valley belonging to Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan.
4. Especially Central Asia is an ecological desaster area. The most obvious symbol is the gradual extinction of the Aral sea. A natural geographic situation is adding with usable agricultural areas as low as 3% of the total area in Turkmenistan. In Tajikistan, the official population density is 41 and the de facto density 488 inhabitants per square cilometer. Adding a natural population increase between 15 per 1000 inhabitants in Kazakhstan and 31 per 1000 inhabitants in Turkmenistan, the regional ecological picture is getting almost irreparably bleak.
5. The rise of militant and radical Islam. Exclusionary tactics imposed by several of the Central Asian regimes have increased frustration for the newly emerged Islamic groups in the region and affected the legitimacy of the regimes, while government efforts to promote Islamic culture have been perceived as inadequate or insincere. Compared to drug trafficking and 'state gone mafia', islamic fundamentalism is a minor factor after the end of Taleban rule in Afghanistan.