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European Security Order

The unlawful war of aggression against Ukraine is another attempt by Moscow to reshape – to its own advantage – the rules-based European security order established after the end of the Cold War. This has implications far beyond Ukraine’s borders: Many European countries have increased their defence spending, NATO has been significantly strengthening its collective defence in the east, and Finland (2023) and Sweden (2024) have joined the Atlantic Alliance. Following Ukraine’s application for EU membership on 28 February 2022, accession talks were launched in June 2024. On 30 September 2022, Ukraine also submitted an application for “accelerated accession” to NATO. It is true that NATO has since reaffirmed Ukraine’s membership prospects in principle and established the new NATO-Ukraine Council; moreover, all G7 countries and many EU member states have concluded bilateral security agreements with Ukraine. Yet, there is no consensus within the Alliance on a specific time horizon. This leaves open the question of whether the bilateral security commitments are a substitute or a bridge to membership in the Atlantic Alliance and how EU membership can be secured militarily.


Furthermore, Russia’s war against Ukraine has also had implications for the transatlantic relationship and global security: How sustainable is the US commitment to European security, what is the future of nuclear disarmament, and how can global security issues such as autonomous weapons systems, the militarisation of outer space, and AI be regulated?

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