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European Security Order

The Russian war of aggression against Ukraine also represents an attempt by Moscow to reshape the European security order established after the end of the Cold War in its favour. This has implications far beyond Ukraine's borders: many European states have announced plans to drastically increase their defence spending, including Germany with the Bundeswehr's special fund as part of the "turning point" announced by the chancellor. NATO is significantly strengthening its defences in the east. In a historic move, Finland and Sweden have decided to join the Atlantic Alliance after decades of alliance neutrality. The European Union finances military support to Ukraine from the European Peace Facility. In addition, Ukraine has applied for EU membership and has been assigned EU candidate status, for which there is strong political momentum on the one hand, but which also raises old questions about the EU's absorption capacity.

Moreover, the changes in the European security order affects transatlantic relations. NATO is back as the cornerstone of territorial defence for its member states, and the US has once again increased its presence in Europe. The relationship of European strategic sovereignty to the transatlantic alliance, however, remains ambivalent, and the sustainability of the U.S. commitment to European security beyond the next presidential election is an open issue.