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European Security Order

The unlawful war of aggression against Ukraine is another attempt by Moscow to reshape – to its own advantage – the rules-based European security order established after the end of the Cold War. This has implications far beyond Ukraine’s borders: Many European countries have increased their defence spending, NATO has been significantly strengthening its collective defence in the east, and Finland (2023) and Sweden (2024) have joined the Atlantic Alliance. Since June 2024, the EU has been conducting accession talks with Ukraine. NATO reaffirms Ukraine’s prospect of membership in principle and has established a NATO–Ukraine Council. All G7 countries and many EU member states have concluded bilateral security agreements with Ukraine. Yet, there is no consensus within the Alliance on a specific time horizon of the accession process. This leaves open the question of whether the bilateral security commitments are a substitute or a bridge to membership in the Atlantic Alliance and how EU membership can be secured militarily. This uncertainty has been exacerbated by transatlantic tensions since President Trump’s second term. This, in turn, provides fertile ground for Russia’s attempts to weaken transatlantic relations and drive a wedge between Europeans.

Furthermore, Russia’s war against Ukraine has also had implications for global security: What is the future of nuclear disarmament, and how can global security issues such as autonomous weapons systems, the militarisation of outer space, and AI be regulated?

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