After the annexation of Crimea in 2014 and the covert war in the Donbas, Russia openly attacked Ukraine throughout its territory on 24 February 2022. Moscow's original plan to gain control over the entire territory of Ukraine by quickly seizing Kyiv has failed. Instead, a prolonged war of attrition is emerging. The brutality of the Russian warfare and Moscow's maximum demands make a negotiation process difficult. In Russia, the war is accompanied by ever stronger domestic repression. At the same time, the effects of the sanctions, coupled with military setbacks and high casualty figures, may increase the pressure on the political leadership in the future. In Ukraine, on the other hand, the war reinforces the national identity and the country's course towards the West.
Russia's war against Ukraine calls into question basic assumptions of German and European policy towards Russia and Eastern Europe. It is proving to be a catalyst for a reorientation of the European security order and European energy policy. But the war also has repercussions beyond Europe, for example on the global balance of power with China or on food security.
The dossier provides an overview of the military situation and the negotiation process during the war. SWP publications and external contributions by SWP researchers on the consequences for the European security order and on effects at the global level are bundled separately.
Eastern Europe, Eurasia (Head of Research Division)phone:+49 30 88007- 256