Military situation and negotiations

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In the protracted war of attrition, Moscow is counting on generating more human and material resources and on wearing down the Ukrainian population through the constant shelling of civilian infrastructure and residential buildings. At the same time, the Kremlin has faced domestic political risks stemming from military requirements (the unpopular partial mobilisation in 2022, the “Wagner” mutiny in 2023). The Kursk Offensive (2024–2025), along with extensive precision strikes on Russian infrastructure and military facilities and the return of hundreds of thousands of veterans, is raising the visibility of the war within the country. Due to manpower shortages, Kyiv is focusing on the resilience of its population, technological innovation in its defence industry, and military cooperation with Western partners. U.S. military aid has changed significantly during the Trump presidency and in the wake of the Iran War. With the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russia’s confrontational stance toward NATO and the EU has also intensified. This is evidenced by enlarging the target size of the armed forces to 1.5 million troops, the military buildup in the western part of the country, and nuclear threats. Hybrid attacks in Europe are on the rise, with a shift from influence campaigns toward acts of sabotage.

The parties have been negotiating continuously since the start of the war in 2014 and Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Bilateral ceasefire negotiations took place in the spring of 2022 and 2025, but failed to bring an end to the hostilities. Peace initiatives by third countries have likewise failed. Between 2023 and 2025, both Kyiv and Moscow sought the support of the Global South through their diplomatic initiatives, whilst continuing to negotiate with one another on prisoner exchanges. With the return of the MAGA administration under Donald Trump in 2025, the US distanced itself from its Western allies, became more receptive to Russia’s demands and scaled back its support for Ukraine. However, Russia’s hopes that Trump might force Kyiv to surrender did not materialise.