Megatrends Afrika
Major transformations in Africa
African states and societies are undergoing profound transformations. In an increasing number of countries, ever-younger populations demand political change. External actors such as China or Russia intensify their engagement on the continent. The number and scale of armed conflicts are on the rise, particularly in the northern half of Africa.
Global megatrends are driving or influencing such processes of transformation on the African continent. Megatrends are long-term structural changes that largely escape political control. They have profound effects on social, economic, and political orders. Examples include climate change, digitalisation, urbanisation, and shifts in global power relations.
The “Megatrends Africa” project
In the project “Megatrends Afrika: Strukturelle Transformation und internationale Zeitenwende”, we, the project team, explore how megatrends affect African states and societies. We seek to develop ideas for German and European cooperation with African partners that help to make ongoing transformations fairer and more sustainable. This is all the more important as Africa is rising on the agenda of German and European policymakers, as does their need for evidence-based policy advice.
We are currently focussing our research on three areas:
- Violent Actors and Transformation of Conflict
- Megatrends between Processes of Democratization and Autocratization
- Global Power Shifts and Multipolarity
Megatrends Africa is a joint project of the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP), the German Institute for Development and Sustainability (IDOS), and the Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW). Our project cooperates with the Kiel Institute Africa Initiative.
The project’s researchers adhere to the generally accepted principles for ensuring good scientific practice. All project publications are subject to an internal written internal peer review process. In case of our blog series MTA spotlight, the reviewing procedure is conducted through the project director affiliated with the author's organisation. Furthermore the Policy Briefs are subjected to a fact-checking process.
Informing the debate on Africa policy
We produce policy-relevant research on major political, social, and economic trends in Africa. The team brings together scholars from both continents and different disciplines. Our aim is to exchange, take on, and critically question different perspectives. We do so at workshops with representatives from academia, politics, and civil society, through our publications, as well as here on the blog of our website. This way, we wish to contribute to a more nuanced public debate on Africa.
Publications of this project
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Toward a “Mini-Polar” Future: Where Do Africa and Europe Stand?
In 2050, the world will be warmer, older, more African, less European and with a ‘mini-polar’ world order. Collin Meisel explains how political choices governments make today will determine whether the future is shaped by greater cooperation or rivalry.
Megatrends spotlight 80, 12.08.2026 -
„Compacts with Africa”: Wirksamer Hebel für Privatinvestitionen?
Die „Compact with Africa”-Initiative der G20 wollte mittels Reformen die nötigen Voraussetzungen schaffen, um private Investitionen für afrikanische Länder zu mobilisieren. Fast zehn Jahre nach Beginn der Initiative analysieren Rainer Thiele und Tomke Necker Wirksamkeit und strukturelle Defizite.
Megatrends Spotlight 56, 10.08.2026 -
Anti-Migration Protests in South Africa: Winning Votes on the Backs of the Most Vulnerable
Xenophobic violence is escalating across South Africa. Melanie Müller examines who is behind the protests, how hardship is being exploited, and why the government is responding with stricter migration policies.
Megatrends spotlight 79, 06.08.2026 -
Between Shock and Opportunity: Hormuz and Deepening North Africa–Europe Relations
With the world’s attention fixed on the Strait of Hormuz, developments in North Africa have made fewer headlines in Europe. The crises in the Middle East are likely to deepen the geostrategic interdependence of North Africa and Europe, creating opportunities for both regions.
Megatrends spotlight 78, 03.08.2026 -
Critical Minerals Will Reshape European-African Relations
Critical raw materials are shaping the global geoeconomic landscape. For European industry, access to these materials is essential to maintain competitiveness. For resource-rich African nations, they offer potential for their own industrialization. This will bring Europe and Africa closer together.
Megatrends spotlight 77, 22.07.2026 -
Anti-Migrationsproteste in Südafrika: Wahlkampf auf dem Rücken der Schwächsten
In Südafrika verschärft sich landesweit xenophobe Gewalt. Melanie Müller analysiert, wer hinter den Protesten steht, wie soziale Not instrumentalisiert wird und warum die Regierung mit einer strengeren Migrationspolitik reagiert.
Megatrends Spotlight 55, 17.07.2026