African states and societies are undergoing profound transformations. In an increasing number of countries, ever-younger populations demand political change. External actors such as China or Russia intensify their engagement on the continent. The number and scale of armed conflicts are on the rise, particularly in the northern half of Africa.
Global megatrends are driving or influencing such processes of transformation on the African continent. Megatrends are long-term structural changes that largely escape political control. They have profound effects on social, economic, and political orders. Examples include climate change, digitalisation, urbanisation, and shifts in global power relations.
In the project “Megatrends Afrika: Strukturelle Transformation und internationale Zeitenwende”, we, the project team, explore how megatrends affect African states and societies. We seek to develop ideas for German and European cooperation with African partners that help to make ongoing transformations fairer and more sustainable. This is all the more important as Africa is rising on the agenda of German and European policymakers, as does their need for evidence-based policy advice.
We are currently focussing our research on three areas:
Megatrends Africa is a joint project of the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP), the German Institute for Development and Sustainability (IDOS), and the Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW). Our project cooperates with the Kiel Institute Africa Initiative.
The project’s researchers adhere to the generally accepted principles for ensuring good scientific practice. All project publications are subject to an internal written internal peer review process. In case of our blog series MTA spotlight, the reviewing procedure is conducted through the project director affiliated with the author's organisation. Furthermore the Policy Briefs are subjected to a fact-checking process.
We produce policy-relevant research on major political, social, and economic trends in Africa. The team brings together scholars from both continents and different disciplines. Our aim is to exchange, take on, and critically question different perspectives. We do so at workshops with representatives from academia, politics, and civil society, through our publications, as well as here on the blog of our website. This way, we wish to contribute to a more nuanced public debate on Africa.
As an interdepartmentally financed research and advisory project, we receive funding from the German Federal Foreign Office, the Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development, and the Federal Ministry of Defence.
The launch of an RMB clearing bank in Mauritius marks a bold step in financial diversification. By balancing ties with China and India, Port Louis signals a shift toward multi-currency systems – also challenging Europe to adapt its approach as African states seek flexibility beyond dollar dominance.
Energy infrastructure projects in Africa financed by Chinese loans prioritise hydropower over solar or wind power. These projects suffer from low transparency, high government corruption, and the concessionality of loans significantly impacts their successful completion.
doi:10.18449/2025MTA-WP19
At a time when many African countries face financial distress, the first African Union Conference on Debt has sought to influence the global narrative on African debt and inspire confidence among creditors, investors and domestic constituencies, as Karoline Eickhoff observed in Lomé, 12–14 May 2025.
The EU is promoting large-scale cables to North Africa that promise local development and geoeconomic alignment. Philipp Wagner and Etienne Höra argue that these promises are not self-evident: Fulfilling them requires analyses of political and economic corollaries to avoid negative side-effects.
USAID cuts have hit Africa’s media hard, worsening working conditions for journalists already struggling with low pay, harassment, and political repression while Western, Chinese, and Russian power struggles over truth and discourse increasingly affect the future of Africa’s media landscape.
Under Trump 2.0, the United States withdrew from Just Energy Transition Partnerships such as the one with South Africa, resulting in significant financial setbacks that led to the cancellation of energy transition projects, compromised emissions reduction goals, and deepened dependence on coal power.