African states and societies are undergoing profound transformations. In an increasing number of countries, ever-younger populations demand political change. External actors such as China or Russia intensify their engagement on the continent. The number and scale of armed conflicts are on the rise, particularly in the northern half of Africa.
Global megatrends are driving or influencing such processes of transformation on the African continent. Megatrends are long-term structural changes that largely escape political control. They have profound effects on social, economic, and political orders. Examples include climate change, digitalisation, urbanisation, and shifts in global power relations.
In the project “Megatrends Afrika: Strukturelle Transformation und internationale Zeitenwende”, we, the project team, explore how megatrends affect African states and societies. We seek to develop ideas for German and European cooperation with African partners that help to make ongoing transformations fairer and more sustainable. This is all the more important as Africa is rising on the agenda of German and European policymakers, as does their need for evidence-based policy advice.
We are currently focussing our research on three areas:
Megatrends Africa is a joint project of the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP), the German Institute for Development and Sustainability (IDOS), and the Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW). Our project cooperates with the Kiel Institute Africa Initiative.
The project’s researchers adhere to the generally accepted principles for ensuring good scientific practice. All project publications are subject to an internal written internal peer review process. In case of our blog series MTA spotlight, the reviewing procedure is conducted through the project director affiliated with the author's organisation. Furthermore the Policy Briefs are subjected to a fact-checking process.
We produce policy-relevant research on major political, social, and economic trends in Africa. The team brings together scholars from both continents and different disciplines. Our aim is to exchange, take on, and critically question different perspectives. We do so at workshops with representatives from academia, politics, and civil society, through our publications, as well as here on the blog of our website. This way, we wish to contribute to a more nuanced public debate on Africa.
In the past few years, China’s engagement in Africa has (again) caused controversy as to whether, how and to what effect China seeks to actively share lessons from its political and economic system in its relations with African countries. One important actor in this regard is the International Department of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP-ID), which is in charge of China’s party diplomacy in Africa and beyond. This policy brief analyses recent patterns and motives of China’s party diplomacy in Africa. It finds that the CCP maintains close ties with the main ruling parties in southern Africa and in some countries in East Africa, while engaging with a broad range of parties in countries in North Africa. Beijing’s party diplomacy in Africa seeks to promote China’s core foreign policy interests, advance an alternative narrative on global China and normalize China’s authoritarian system. Even though it remains unclear as to what extent China can reach it goals through party diplomacy, African policymakers certainly welcome the continuous and high-level engagement by Chinese party officials. European policymakers, in turn, should invest more in better understanding party diplomacy, and reflect on how to respond to a growing competition of narratives.
The recent wave of coups in the Sahel puts Western policy makers in a difficult situation: While they wish to maintain relations and vie for influence, they also want to avoid strengthening unconstitutional rule. Collaboration with civil society organizations (CSOs) who are supposedly closer to citizens, is currently discussed as a way out of the dilemma. However, research reveals that especially in authoritarian contexts, the lines between CSOs and the state are often blurred. If Western policy makers wish to collaborate with CSOs, they need to have up-to-date knowledge about local CSO landscapes, flexible funding instruments, and a clearly defined strategy that entails risk mitigation measures while embedding CSO support in a concerted political approach.
doi:10.18449/2024MTA-PB28
Dschihadistische Gewalt aus dem Sahel greift nicht flächendeckend auf die westafrikanischen Küstenländer über. Während Togo und Benin zunehmend im Visier sind, ist das Gegenteil in Côte d’Ivoire (und Ghana) der Fall. Diese positive Entwicklung steht jedoch auf tönernen Füßen, schreibt Denis Tull.
Jihadist violence has spread from the Sahel to some – but not all – of the coastal countries of West Africa. While Togo and Benin are increasingly affected by attacks, the opposite is true of Côte d’Ivoire (and Ghana). But the Ivorian success stands on shaky foundations, as Denis Tull explains.
Äthiopien, das mit Unterstützung des Internationalen Währungsfonds (IWF) ehrgeizige Wirtschaftsreformen in Angriff nimmt, steht vor der heiklen Aufgabe, ein Gleichgewicht zwischen Reformen und Stabilität herzustellen. Das Land sollte dabei Lehren aus den jüngsten Unruhen in den Nachbarländern Kenia und Sudan ziehen, wo vom IWF unterstützte Maßnahmen breite Proteste ausgelöst haben, schreibt Dawit Ayele Haylemariam.
As Ethiopia embarks on ambitious economic reforms with the support of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), it faces the delicate task of balancing reform with stability. It should do so by drawing lessons from the unrest in neighbouring Kenya and Sudan, where IMF-backed reforms have sparked widespread protests, writes Dawit Ayele Haylemariam.