Megatrends Afrika
Major transformations in Africa
African states and societies are undergoing profound transformations. In an increasing number of countries, ever-younger populations demand political change. External actors such as China or Russia intensify their engagement on the continent. The number and scale of armed conflicts are on the rise, particularly in the northern half of Africa.
Global megatrends are driving or influencing such processes of transformation on the African continent. Megatrends are long-term structural changes that largely escape political control. They have profound effects on social, economic, and political orders. Examples include climate change, digitalisation, urbanisation, and shifts in global power relations.
The “Megatrends Africa” project
In the project “Megatrends Afrika: Strukturelle Transformation und internationale Zeitenwende”, we, the project team, explore how megatrends affect African states and societies. We seek to develop ideas for German and European cooperation with African partners that help to make ongoing transformations fairer and more sustainable. This is all the more important as Africa is rising on the agenda of German and European policymakers, as does their need for evidence-based policy advice.
We are currently focussing our research on three areas:
- Violent Actors and Transformation of Conflict
- Megatrends between Processes of Democratization and Autocratization
- Global Power Shifts and Multipolarity
Megatrends Africa is a joint project of the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP), the German Institute for Development and Sustainability (IDOS), and the Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW). Our project cooperates with the Kiel Institute Africa Initiative.
The project’s researchers adhere to the generally accepted principles for ensuring good scientific practice. All project publications are subject to an internal written internal peer review process. In case of our blog series MTA spotlight, the reviewing procedure is conducted through the project director affiliated with the author's organisation. Furthermore the Policy Briefs are subjected to a fact-checking process.
Informing the debate on Africa policy
We produce policy-relevant research on major political, social, and economic trends in Africa. The team brings together scholars from both continents and different disciplines. Our aim is to exchange, take on, and critically question different perspectives. We do so at workshops with representatives from academia, politics, and civil society, through our publications, as well as here on the blog of our website. This way, we wish to contribute to a more nuanced public debate on Africa.
Funding
As an interdepartmentally financed research and advisory project, we receive funding from the German Federal Foreign Office, the Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development, and the Federal Ministry of Defence.
Publications of this project
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The Weaponization of Social Media in Sudan’s War
In Sudan’s war, social media has become a central battlefield, where influencers from the diaspora shape narratives, legitimize violence, and deepen polarization. Onor Hamad explains how lines between media and military roles are being blurred, and calls for stronger regulation and accountability.
Megatrends spotlight 70, 23.04.2026 -
Affirming Economic Sovereignty: Resource Nationalism in the Sahel
Military regimes in the Sahel increasingly use resource nationalism in the mining sector. Aiming for higher state revenues, their coercive methods may deter businesses, and it is doubtful whether citizens benefit or elites profit. The juntas show little inclination towards accountability.
Megatrends spotlight 69, 21.04.2026 -
Der Iran-Krieg als Stresstest für die „Diversifizierung von Partnerschaften“ im Sahel
Die Sahel Staaten haben den Krieg der USA gegen Iran trotz vertiefter Beziehungen mit Teheran nicht verurteilt. Das liegt an geostrategischen Kalkülen, denn die Militärregime wollen den aktuellen Annäherungsprozess an die USA nicht gefährden. Dabei laufen sie Gefahr, innenpolitisch an Rückhalt einzubüßen.
Megatrends Spotlight 53, 16.04.2026 -
Der Iran-Krieg als Multiplikator für Krisen und Konflikte am Horn von Afrika
Sudan, Äthiopien und Somalia sind besonders stark von den wirtschaftlichen Folgen des Iran-Kriegs betroffen, könnten aber auch von der Umleitung des internationalen Handels profitieren. Die Konfliktakteure am Horn von Afrika bemühen sich derweil, die Unterstützung der Golfstaaten aufrechtzuerhalten.
Megatrends Spotlight 52, 14.04.2026 -
Der Iran-Krieg als doppelter wirtschaftlicher Schock in Afrika
Der Iran-Krieg trifft Afrika wirtschaftlich: geringere Überweisungen aus den Golfstaaten und höhere Kosten für Düngemittel wirken auf Ost- und Nordafrika sowie in Teilen Subsahara-Afrikas. Obwohl die Effekte gleichzeitig auftreten, folgen sie unterschiedlichen wirtschaftlichen Mechanismen.
Megatrends Spotlight 51, 13.04.2026 -
Ruhe vor dem Sturm? Ägyptens Jugend unter Präsident al-Sisi
In Ägypten konnten Jugendproteste bislang durch systematische politische Kontrolle, digitale Repression und Abwanderung verhindert werden. Angesichts wachsender sozioökonomischer Perspektivlosigkeit und demografischer Dynamiken steigt jedoch das Protestpotenzial, so Stephan Roll und Josef Schreck.
Megatrends Spotlight 50, 23.03.2026
