Megatrends Afrika
Major transformations in Africa
African states and societies are undergoing profound transformations. In an increasing number of countries, ever-younger populations demand political change. External actors such as China or Russia intensify their engagement on the continent. The number and scale of armed conflicts are on the rise, particularly in the northern half of Africa.
Global megatrends are driving or influencing such processes of transformation on the African continent. Megatrends are long-term structural changes that largely escape political control. They have profound effects on social, economic, and political orders. Examples include climate change, digitalisation, urbanisation, and shifts in global power relations.
The “Megatrends Africa” project
In the project “Megatrends Afrika: Strukturelle Transformation und internationale Zeitenwende”, we, the project team, explore how megatrends affect African states and societies. We seek to develop ideas for German and European cooperation with African partners that help to make ongoing transformations fairer and more sustainable. This is all the more important as Africa is rising on the agenda of German and European policymakers, as does their need for evidence-based policy advice.
We are currently focussing our research on three areas:
- Violent Actors and Transformation of Conflict
- Megatrends between Processes of Democratization and Autocratization
- Global Power Shifts and Multipolarity
Megatrends Africa is a joint project of the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP), the German Institute for Development and Sustainability (IDOS), and the Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW). Our project cooperates with the Kiel Institute Africa Initiative.
The project’s researchers adhere to the generally accepted principles for ensuring good scientific practice. All project publications are subject to an internal written internal peer review process. In case of our blog series MTA spotlight, the reviewing procedure is conducted through the project director affiliated with the author's organisation. Furthermore the Policy Briefs are subjected to a fact-checking process.
Informing the debate on Africa policy
We produce policy-relevant research on major political, social, and economic trends in Africa. The team brings together scholars from both continents and different disciplines. Our aim is to exchange, take on, and critically question different perspectives. We do so at workshops with representatives from academia, politics, and civil society, through our publications, as well as here on the blog of our website. This way, we wish to contribute to a more nuanced public debate on Africa.
Publications of this project
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Debating Trump 2.0 and Implications for Africa – The Multiple Pressures on Civil Society Organizations
The USAID cuts put strain on Africa’s underfunded civil society organizations and fuel debates about their legitimacy. While CSOs need to diversify their funding sources, European donors should invest in narratives that support an independent civil society and shift their funding to advocacy.
Megatrends spotlight 58, 04.09.2025 -
Crisis of Debt or Crisis of Confidence? Kenya’s Contested Fiscal Outlook
Kenya is facing not only a debt crisis, but a deeper crisis of public trust. In this policy brief, Karoline Eickhoff contrasts official narratives that blame external shocks with public concerns over corruption and mismanagement, and outlines implications for international actors.
Megatrends Policy Brief 41, 31.07.2025, 12 Pagesdoi:10.18449/2025MTA-PB41
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Localizing Development to the Grassroots: Potentials and Limits of Engaging with Community Groups
Amid rising restrictions on foreign funding, localization—directly funding local groups—is seen as a path to more effective, locally owned aid. This policy brief examines whether donors should shift support from large civil society organizations to grassroots community groups.
Megatrends Policy Brief 40, 30.07.2025, 8 Pagesdoi:10.18449/2025MTA-PB40
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African Youth and the Future of Democracy
With African youth at the heart of political change, this study draws on Afrobarometer data from 41 countries to examine how the youth bulge, urbanization, and social media use shape young Africans’ support for democracy, voting behavior, and protest participation.
Megatrends Working Paper 20, 21.07.2025, 30 Pagesdoi:10.18449/2025MTA-WP20
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Workforce Transition in South Africa's Just Energy Transition
South Africa’s just energy transition is flawed, with jobs in renewables characterised by instability, skills mismatches and inadequate social protection. This policy brief examines how climate goals can be aligned with socioeconomic stability.
Megatrends Policy Brief 39, 17.07.2025, 10 Pagesdoi:10.18449/2025MTA-PB39
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The Art of Balance: Mauritius, Multi-Alignment, and the Global Currency Chessboard
The launch of an RMB clearing bank in Mauritius marks a bold step in financial diversification. By balancing ties with China and India, Port Louis signals a shift toward multi-currency systems – also challenging Europe to adapt its approach as African states seek flexibility beyond dollar dominance.
Megatrends spotlight 57, 25.06.2025