Megatrends Afrika
Major transformations in Africa
African states and societies are undergoing profound transformations. In an increasing number of countries, ever-younger populations demand political change. External actors such as China or Russia intensify their engagement on the continent. The number and scale of armed conflicts are on the rise, particularly in the northern half of Africa.
Global megatrends are driving or influencing such processes of transformation on the African continent. Megatrends are long-term structural changes that largely escape political control. They have profound effects on social, economic, and political orders. Examples include climate change, digitalisation, urbanisation, and shifts in global power relations.
The “Megatrends Africa” project
In the project “Megatrends Afrika: Strukturelle Transformation und internationale Zeitenwende”, we, the project team, explore how megatrends affect African states and societies. We seek to develop ideas for German and European cooperation with African partners that help to make ongoing transformations fairer and more sustainable. This is all the more important as Africa is rising on the agenda of German and European policymakers, as does their need for evidence-based policy advice.
We are currently focussing our research on three areas:
- Violent Actors and Transformation of Conflict
- Megatrends between Processes of Democratization and Autocratization
- Global Power Shifts and Multipolarity
Megatrends Africa is a joint project of the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP), the German Institute for Development and Sustainability (IDOS), and the Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW). Our project cooperates with the Kiel Institute Africa Initiative.
The project’s researchers adhere to the generally accepted principles for ensuring good scientific practice. All project publications are subject to an internal written internal peer review process. In case of our blog series MTA spotlight, the reviewing procedure is conducted through the project director affiliated with the author's organisation. Furthermore the Policy Briefs are subjected to a fact-checking process.
Informing the debate on Africa policy
We produce policy-relevant research on major political, social, and economic trends in Africa. The team brings together scholars from both continents and different disciplines. Our aim is to exchange, take on, and critically question different perspectives. We do so at workshops with representatives from academia, politics, and civil society, through our publications, as well as here on the blog of our website. This way, we wish to contribute to a more nuanced public debate on Africa.
Publications of this project
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Ein zartes Pflänzchen: Potenziale afrikanischer Erwerbs- und Bildungsmigration nach Deutschland
Während das Gros der öffentlichen Migrationsdebatte in Europa auf irreguläre Zuwanderung blickt, wachsen reguläre Erwerbs- und Bildungskorridore aus Afrika längst von selbst. Ob daraus faire und wechselseitig nützliche Wege werden, entscheidet sich daran, wie dieses zarte Pflänzchen gepflegt wird.
Megatrends Spotlight 54, 02.07.2026 -
The Untapped Potential of Labour and Education Migration from Africa to Germany
While public debate on migration in Europe focuses mainly on irregular migration, regular routes for labour and education migration from Africa have been expanding. Whether these become fair and mutually beneficial pathways will depend on how they are designed and supported.
Megatrends spotlight 75, 02.07.2026 -
The ECOWAS Counter-Terrorism Force: New Ambitions, Old Constraints
The Economic Community of West African States’ creation of a “counter-terrorism” force reflects its determination to retain a leading role in regional security and can be read as a conciliatory gesture towards the Alliance of Sahel States. However, major hurdles remain to be overcome.
Megatrends spotlight 74, 29.06.2026 -
Trump in Africa: Nigeria's Bounded Agency and Structural Dependence Under US Pressure
Since last October, the United States has been exerting coercive pressure on Nigeria. President Tinubu’s response is constrained by religious and ethnic coalition politics ahead of the 2027 election. Thus, Nigeria’s compliance reflects both external pressure and domestic political imperatives.
Megatrends Policy Brief 50, 26.06.2026, 10 Pagesdoi:10.18449/2026MTA-PB50
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African Scholars in China: Education Mobility as Soft Power?
China pledged more scholarships to African students than Western governments combined. Using LinkedIn data, we show that they study engineering and business in China, and, back in Africa, work in education and sectors tied to China-backed projects. This may underpin China’s geopolitical soft power.
Megatrends spotlight 73, 17.06.2026 -
The Implementation Gap and Energy Transition Pathways in Africa
Africa's energy transition will be won or lost in implementation. Botswana and Uganda show that targets matter only when matched by credible procurement, resilient grids, bankable finance and institutions capable of turning ambition into reliable, inclusive and low-carbon power systems.
Megatrends spotlight 72, 12.06.2026