African states and societies are undergoing profound transformations. In an increasing number of countries, ever-younger populations demand political change. External actors such as China or Russia intensify their engagement on the continent. The number and scale of armed conflicts are on the rise, particularly in the northern half of Africa.
Global megatrends are driving or influencing such processes of transformation on the African continent. Megatrends are long-term structural changes that largely escape political control. They have profound effects on social, economic, and political orders. Examples include climate change, digitalisation, urbanisation, and shifts in global power relations.
In the project “Megatrends Afrika: Strukturelle Transformation und internationale Zeitenwende”, we, the project team, explore how megatrends affect African states and societies. We seek to develop ideas for German and European cooperation with African partners that help to make ongoing transformations fairer and more sustainable. This is all the more important as Africa is rising on the agenda of German and European policymakers, as does their need for evidence-based policy advice.
We are currently focussing our research on three areas:
Megatrends Africa is a joint project of the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP), the German Institute for Development and Sustainability (IDOS), and the Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW). Our project cooperates with the Kiel Institute Africa Initiative.
The project’s researchers adhere to the generally accepted principles for ensuring good scientific practice. All project publications are subject to an internal written internal peer review process. In case of our blog series MTA spotlight, the reviewing procedure is conducted through the project director affiliated with the author's organisation. Furthermore the Policy Briefs are subjected to a fact-checking process.
We produce policy-relevant research on major political, social, and economic trends in Africa. The team brings together scholars from both continents and different disciplines. Our aim is to exchange, take on, and critically question different perspectives. We do so at workshops with representatives from academia, politics, and civil society, through our publications, as well as here on the blog of our website. This way, we wish to contribute to a more nuanced public debate on Africa.
As an interdepartmentally financed research and advisory project, we receive funding from the German Federal Foreign Office, the Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development, and the Federal Ministry of Defence.
Under Trump 2.0, the United States withdrew from Just Energy Transition Partnerships such as the one with South Africa, resulting in significant financial setbacks that led to the cancellation of energy transition projects, compromised emissions reduction goals, and deepened dependence on coal power.
Mauritania’s importance as a partner for Europe is growing. Increased resources and foreign support could either help the ruling elite to consolidate power or worsen social fragilities. European migration and security policies risk adding to tensions.
doi:10.18449/2025MTA-PB38
In this Megatrends Afrika interview, Abdirisak M. Shaqale discusses prerequisites for Somaliland's international recognition and links his positive view of Trump 2.0 to this opportunity. He highlights Somaliland's geostrategic advantage and urges Europe to rethink its partnerships with Africa.
Public debt is rising globally and several countries in Africa are facing debt distress. To advance African priorities during the South African G20 Presidency, the African Union should focus on negotiating short-term gains, such as steps to better address borrowers' needs in debt restructuring.
doi:10.18449/2025MTA-PB37
In this interview with Megatrends Afrika, Nad Sivaramen discusses implications of Trump 2.0 for Mauritius and the broader Indian Ocean region. He outlines how a small island state can navigate this new, volatile world.
In this interview with Megatrends Afrika, Dr Abel Abate Demissie discusses implications of Trump 2.0 for Ethiopia and the Horn of Africa, emphasizing how USAID cuts could increase regional instability. He highlights the importance of collaborating on challenges such as illegal migration and security.