Megatrends Afrika
Major transformations in Africa
African states and societies are undergoing profound transformations. In an increasing number of countries, ever-younger populations demand political change. External actors such as China or Russia intensify their engagement on the continent. The number and scale of armed conflicts are on the rise, particularly in the northern half of Africa.
Global megatrends are driving or influencing such processes of transformation on the African continent. Megatrends are long-term structural changes that largely escape political control. They have profound effects on social, economic, and political orders. Examples include climate change, digitalisation, urbanisation, and shifts in global power relations.
The “Megatrends Africa” project
In the project “Megatrends Afrika: Strukturelle Transformation und internationale Zeitenwende”, we, the project team, explore how megatrends affect African states and societies. We seek to develop ideas for German and European cooperation with African partners that help to make ongoing transformations fairer and more sustainable. This is all the more important as Africa is rising on the agenda of German and European policymakers, as does their need for evidence-based policy advice.
We are currently focussing our research on three areas:
- Violent Actors and Transformation of Conflict
- Megatrends between Processes of Democratization and Autocratization
- Global Power Shifts and Multipolarity
Megatrends Africa is a joint project of the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP), the German Institute for Development and Sustainability (IDOS), and the Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW). Our project cooperates with the Kiel Institute Africa Initiative.
The project’s researchers adhere to the generally accepted principles for ensuring good scientific practice. All project publications are subject to an internal written internal peer review process. In case of our blog series MTA spotlight, the reviewing procedure is conducted through the project director affiliated with the author's organisation. Furthermore the Policy Briefs are subjected to a fact-checking process.
Informing the debate on Africa policy
We produce policy-relevant research on major political, social, and economic trends in Africa. The team brings together scholars from both continents and different disciplines. Our aim is to exchange, take on, and critically question different perspectives. We do so at workshops with representatives from academia, politics, and civil society, through our publications, as well as here on the blog of our website. This way, we wish to contribute to a more nuanced public debate on Africa.
Publications of this project
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Leverage and Limits: What African Actors Make of the New Multipolarity
Africa is entering a new era of multipolarity, with global powers competing to become key partners to the continent. This study analyses the different facets of multipolarity and how African actors respond to both opportunities and constraints arising from the growing interest of foreign actors.
Megatrends Working Paper 21, 08.10.2025, 48 Pagesdoi:10.18449/2025MTA-WP21
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Fragmented Approaches, Missed Opportunities: Security Coordination Challenges in Nigeria’s DDRR Efforts
Disengagement, disassociation, reintegration, and reconciliation programmes are central to Nigeria’s counter-terrorism, but rivalries among security agencies limit their impact. Joshua Akintayo highlights how such competition weakens effectiveness and ultimately increases the risk of recidivism.
Megatrends Policy Brief 42, 29.09.2025, 10 Pagesdoi:10.18449/2025MTA-PB42
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Afrikas Platz auf der Weltkarte
Weltkarten sind nicht neutral, sondern marginalisieren Afrika, sagt die „Correct the Map“-Kampagne. Vor dem Gipfeltreffen der Europäischen Union und der Afrikanischen Union im November sollte die europäische Seite daher ihr Kartenmaterial prüfen, argumentiert Karoline Eickhoff in diesem Spotlight.
Megatrends Spotlight 48, 18.09.2025 -
Africa’s Place on the World Map
World maps are not neutral and marginalize Africa, says the “Correct the Map” campaign. The European side should therefore review its map materials ahead of the European Union-African Union summit in November, argues Karoline Eickhoff in this Spotlight.
Megatrends spotlight 59, 18.09.2025 -
Debating Trump 2.0 and Implications for Africa – The Multiple Pressures on Civil Society Organizations
The USAID cuts put strain on Africa’s underfunded civil society organizations and fuel debates about their legitimacy. While CSOs need to diversify their funding sources, European donors should invest in narratives that support an independent civil society and shift their funding to advocacy.
Megatrends spotlight 58, 04.09.2025 -
Crisis of Debt or Crisis of Confidence? Kenya’s Contested Fiscal Outlook
Kenya is facing not only a debt crisis, but a deeper crisis of public trust. In this policy brief, Karoline Eickhoff contrasts official narratives that blame external shocks with public concerns over corruption and mismanagement, and outlines implications for international actors.
Megatrends Policy Brief 41, 31.07.2025, 12 Pagesdoi:10.18449/2025MTA-PB41