Megatrends Afrika
Major transformations in Africa
African states and societies are undergoing profound transformations. In an increasing number of countries, ever-younger populations demand political change. External actors such as China or Russia intensify their engagement on the continent. The number and scale of armed conflicts are on the rise, particularly in the northern half of Africa.
Global megatrends are driving or influencing such processes of transformation on the African continent. Megatrends are long-term structural changes that largely escape political control. They have profound effects on social, economic, and political orders. Examples include climate change, digitalisation, urbanisation, and shifts in global power relations.
The “Megatrends Africa” project
In the project “Megatrends Afrika: Strukturelle Transformation und internationale Zeitenwende”, we, the project team, explore how megatrends affect African states and societies. We seek to develop ideas for German and European cooperation with African partners that help to make ongoing transformations fairer and more sustainable. This is all the more important as Africa is rising on the agenda of German and European policymakers, as does their need for evidence-based policy advice.
We are currently focussing our research on three areas:
- Violent Actors and Transformation of Conflict
- Megatrends between Processes of Democratization and Autocratization
- Global Power Shifts and Multipolarity
Megatrends Africa is a joint project of the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP), the German Institute for Development and Sustainability (IDOS), and the Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW). Our project cooperates with the Kiel Institute Africa Initiative.
The project’s researchers adhere to the generally accepted principles for ensuring good scientific practice. All project publications are subject to an internal written internal peer review process. In case of our blog series MTA spotlight, the reviewing procedure is conducted through the project director affiliated with the author's organisation. Furthermore the Policy Briefs are subjected to a fact-checking process.
Informing the debate on Africa policy
We produce policy-relevant research on major political, social, and economic trends in Africa. The team brings together scholars from both continents and different disciplines. Our aim is to exchange, take on, and critically question different perspectives. We do so at workshops with representatives from academia, politics, and civil society, through our publications, as well as here on the blog of our website. This way, we wish to contribute to a more nuanced public debate on Africa.
Funding
As an interdepartmentally financed research and advisory project, we receive funding from the German Federal Foreign Office, the Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development, and the Federal Ministry of Defence.
Publications of this project
-
Agree to Disagree: Why the AU and the EU should Engage in Pragmatic Partnerships
The AU–EU partnership should embrace the plurality within both unions, make interests transparent, and enable pragmatic cooperation between coalitions of willing countries, helping to bring proclaimed ambitions closer to actual practice, explain Benedikt Erforth and Lena Gutheil.
Megatrends spotlight 84, 10.09.2026 -
China’s Scientific Cooperation with Africa
Chinese scientific cooperation with Africa is shaped by both state-led initiatives and actor-driven partnerships, spanning digital transformation, agriculture, public health, satellite remote sensing, joint research, and capacity building, argue Hangwei Li and Han Cheng.
Megatrends spotlight 83, 03.09.2026 -
How South Africa and the EU Can Strengthen Cooperation on Minerals
Both the EU and South Africa seek to reshape critical raw materials supply chains. The EU aims to reduce dependencies on China, while South Africa seeks to create jobs. Melanie Müller explains how their interests can be aligned for closer cooperation in the minerals sector.
Megatrends spotlight 82, 01.09.2026 -
‘Compacts with Africa’: An Effective Lever for Private Investment?
The G20’s “Compacts with Africa” initiative aimed to create the necessary conditions, through reforms, for increased private investment in African countries. Almost ten years after the initiative was launched, Rainer Thiele and Tomke Necker analyse its effectiveness and structural shortcomings.
Megatrends spotlight 81, 31.08.2026 -
China in the Classroom of an African Cadre School
The Mwalimu Julius Nyerere Leadership School serves as a platform for regional and ideological connection for socialist “sister parties” in Southern Africa. While it is African-owned and administered, the Chinese Communist Party significantly shapes its strategic orientation, explains Amélie Wurl.
Megatrends Policy Brief 52, 20.08.2026, 7 Pagesdoi:10.18449/2026MTA-PB52
-
Toward a “Mini-Polar” Future: Where Do Africa and Europe Stand?
In 2050, the world will be warmer, older, more African, less European and with a ‘mini-polar’ world order. Collin Meisel explains how political choices governments make today will determine whether the future is shaped by greater cooperation or rivalry.
Megatrends spotlight 80, 12.08.2026
