Megatrends Afrika
Major transformations in Africa
African states and societies are undergoing profound transformations. In an increasing number of countries, ever-younger populations demand political change. External actors such as China or Russia intensify their engagement on the continent. The number and scale of armed conflicts are on the rise, particularly in the northern half of Africa.
Global megatrends are driving or influencing such processes of transformation on the African continent. Megatrends are long-term structural changes that largely escape political control. They have profound effects on social, economic, and political orders. Examples include climate change, digitalisation, urbanisation, and shifts in global power relations.
The “Megatrends Africa” project
In the project “Megatrends Afrika: Strukturelle Transformation und internationale Zeitenwende”, we, the project team, explore how megatrends affect African states and societies. We seek to develop ideas for German and European cooperation with African partners that help to make ongoing transformations fairer and more sustainable. This is all the more important as Africa is rising on the agenda of German and European policymakers, as does their need for evidence-based policy advice.
We are currently focussing our research on three areas:
- Violent Actors and Transformation of Conflict
- Megatrends between Processes of Democratization and Autocratization
- Global Power Shifts and Multipolarity
Megatrends Africa is a joint project of the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP), the German Institute for Development and Sustainability (IDOS), and the Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW). Our project cooperates with the Kiel Institute Africa Initiative.
The project’s researchers adhere to the generally accepted principles for ensuring good scientific practice. All project publications are subject to an internal written internal peer review process. In case of our blog series MTA spotlight, the reviewing procedure is conducted through the project director affiliated with the author's organisation. Furthermore the Policy Briefs are subjected to a fact-checking process.
Informing the debate on Africa policy
We produce policy-relevant research on major political, social, and economic trends in Africa. The team brings together scholars from both continents and different disciplines. Our aim is to exchange, take on, and critically question different perspectives. We do so at workshops with representatives from academia, politics, and civil society, through our publications, as well as here on the blog of our website. This way, we wish to contribute to a more nuanced public debate on Africa.
Publications of this project
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Assessing 25 Years of Partnership between the AU and EU: No More Business as Usual
Ahead of the African Union–European Union Summit on 24–25 November in Angola, Senegalese lawyer Ibrahima Kane reflects on Europe’s fading moral authority in Africa, outlines the key priorities of African leaders, and highlights why respectful communication must guide the future of EU–Africa relations.
Megatrends spotlight 64, 14.11.2025 -
Assessing 25 Years of Partnership between the AU and EU: Closer Cooperation in Peace and Security
At the seventh AU-EU summit, the focus in the area of peace and security should be on crisis prevention and mediation, cybersecurity, the protection of critical infrastructure and the establishment of security and defence partnerships, writes Julian Bergmann.
Megatrends spotlight 63, 11.11.2025 -
25 Jahre Partnerschaft zwischen AU und EU: Engere Zusammenarbeit in Frieden und Sicherheit
Beim siebten AU-EU-Gipfel sollte der Fokus im Themenfeld Frieden und Sicherheit auf Krisenprävention und Mediation, Cybersicherheit, Schutz kritischer Infrastrukturen und den Aufbau von Sicherheits- und Verteidigungspartnerschaften liegen, schreibt Julian Bergmann.
Megatrends Spotlight 49, 11.11.2025 -
Building Domestic Capacity: Localization Strategies for South Africa's Renewable Energy Sector
South Africa’s energy transition balances decarbonization and energy security. To make it truly just, reforms in procurement, finance, and technology must boost local industry to create jobs, reduce inequality, and strengthen community ownership in renewables.
Megatrends Policy Brief 43, 07.11.2025, 11 Pagesdoi:10.18449/2025MTA-PB43
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The Changing Face of Foreign Intervention in African Conflicts
This spotlight examines how security partnerships have evolved amid a new multipolarity, illustrating shifts in external intervention in African conflicts since 2011 and highlighting the decline of Western engagement alongside the rise of non-Western actors.
Megatrends spotlight 62, 05.11.2025 -
Gen Z, Digital Activism, and Regime Change in Madagascar
In this Spotlight Xuefei Shi describes how digital strategies and online coordination enabled young activists in Madagascar to topple a regime within weeks, manifesting a new era of digital activism in Africa.
Megatrends spotlight 61, 29.10.2025