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War in the Middle East

On 7 October 2023, Hamas and other armed groups launched attacks on Israel, carrying out massacres against the civilian population and abducting around 250 people to the Gaza Strip. This marked a new phase in the conflict in the Middle East. Attacks on Israel were also launched by the Lebanese Hezbollah, the Yemeni Houthis, and Syrian and Iraqi militias. The conflict quickly spread throughout the region. Subsequently, Israel weakened the 'axis of resistance' militarily, killing tens of thousands of people in the Gaza Strip and destroying livelihoods. Donald Trump's '20-point plan' in September 2025, followed by the announcement of a ceasefire in October and the establishment of a Peace Council, an executive committee, and a Palestinian administrative committee in January 2026, set the course for the next steps in conflict resolution. Nevertheless, peace is still not in sight. At the end of February 2026, the US and Israel launched attacks on military and civilian targets in Iran, resulting in the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. The Islamic Republic responded with counterstrikes against Israel and US bases in the region, as well as against civilian targets in Arab Gulf states and beyond. What interests, resources, and options for action do the various actors have? Which scenarios are plausible? What approaches are there for sustainable conflict management?

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