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Strategic Threat Analysis and Nuclear (Dis-)Order (STAND)

German security and defence policy faces the challenge of positioning itself sustainably for decades of military competition. Russia is relentlessly continuing both its use of military force in Europe and its rearmament efforts. A Russian attack on a NATO member state is considered a possibility in the near future, whilst the NATO Alliance’s long-standing fundamental assumptions are being called into question. 

However, the political decisions that will shape this international conflict in the future and for the long term are being made today. For this reason, the researchers involved in the ‘Strategic Threat Analysis and Nuclear (Dis-)Order’ (STAND) research project are addressing key strategic issues and analyses relevant to a sustainable German security and defence policy. Key elements of this research include a threat analysis adapted to the deteriorating security situation, aimed at developing a holistic understanding of the Russian threat, providing corresponding insights into what is required, and setting out options for action. This is because Russian activities and its perception of the conflict with the West extend beyond the land war in Ukraine:

At sea, Russia is already taking aggressive action against European allies, for example by damaging critical infrastructure. Russian activities in space have long been disrupting Western satellite services in Europe, including capabilities that have military use. As Russia is a major nuclear power that uses its nuclear arsenal to pursue and back up a revisionist foreign policy, the nuclear dimension also shapes every aspect and theatre of the military-strategic confrontation with the country: from all escalation scenarios, through the possible deployment of various space-based weapons and maritime nuclear second-strike capability, to questions regarding the safeguarding of a future ceasefire in Ukraine or military deterrence for NATO and Europe.

Due to the lack of consideration given to these aspects of military competition, the current iteration of the project pursues the following objectives: 

  • Threat analysis: To provide an up-to-date, comprehensive picture of the threat posed by Russia to Germany, particularly with regard to the maritime dimension and space security.
  • Assessment: To provide clarity on the nuclear weapons component, without which military competition with Russia cannot be understood.
  • Strategy: To explain existing and new approaches as to how Berlin can successfully navigate this long-term competition, shape it to its advantage in collaboration with partners, and thus remain capable of taking action.

 

The project is supported by the Federal Ministry of Defence (BMVg).

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Video: Russia's nuclear rhetoric

Video: Russia's nuclear rhetoric

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What is Moscow trying to achieve with its nuclear threats? One year after the beginning of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, an SWP analysis reveals that the Kremlin has been pursuing a three-pronged intimidation strategy in this video of the STAND project.