More than just “China+1”: Hidden champions and untapped potential in Germany and the EU's cooperation with Southeast Asia
The research project “More than just ‘China+1’: Hidden champions and untapped potential in Germany and the EU's cooperation with Southeast Asia” examines potentials for closer bilateral and multilateral cooperation with countries in Southeast Asia. Southeast Asia is of strategic importance to Germany and the EU for a variety of reasons. Firstly, this is due to its geographical location. Southeast Asia lies between India and China and hosts important sea lanes (e.g., the Strait of Malacca), through which about one-third of global maritime trade passes.
Secondly, due to its strategic location, Southeast Asia has been at the center of the rivalry between the US and China for years and is therefore also geopolitically relevant. ASEAN and its member states are attempting to prevent an escalation of the Sino-U.S. rivalry through multilateral cooperation formats, inclusivity, and peaceful conflict resolution (e.g., in the South China Sea). Thirdly, ASEAN is also important for geo-economic reasons. With a population of 680 million, the ten ASEAN states are one of the fastest-growing economic regions and the fifth-largest economy in the world.
Despite the region's growing strategic importance, engagement with Southeast Asia has so far remained overtly economically driven, both in Germany and at the EU level. Cooperation with Southeast Asia is seen primarily in the context of economic diversification, with the aim of reducing Germany's economic dependence on China (often referred to in Berlin as “China+1”). Potential for cooperation beyond this is often overlooked. A key reason hereby is the limited knowledge about Southeast Asia – both in terms of historical and political developments and current political dynamics. There is a lack of systematic expertise on which Southeast Asian countries might serve as partners for tackling global challenges, and on the respective policy areas in which to foster closer cooperation in. This lack of expertise is apparent not only for Germany, but also for the European Union as a whole.
The project addresses the gap between the increasing strategic importance of Southeast Asia and the limited knowledge about bilateral and multilateral cooperation opportunities with countries in the region. In this regard, three key players in Southeast Asia (Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand) are examined and analyzed comparatively across policy areas using a series of indicators. The intention is to provide information about convergence (or divergence) in interest and in policy preferences, as well as to provide an indication of the relevance of the respective country in a given policy area. Based on this, bilateral cooperation potentials will be identified in a second step. In addition, the project will also seek to examine where and how the three countries can potentially act as “hidden champions” in the context of multilateral cooperation. The comparative analysis allows for a differentiated assessment of Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand—not only in their bilateral relations with Germany, but also with regard to their role in a more strategically oriented EU foreign policy toward Southeast Asia.
Duration: March 2026 – February 2028
Project Lead: Dr. Felix Heiduk
Research Assistant: Dr. Pia Dannhauer
The project is funded by Mercator Foundation.
