Lars Brozus (ed.)

While We Were Planning

Unexpected Developments in International Politics. Foresight Contributions 2018

SWP Research Paper 2018/RP 05, September 2018, 46 Pages

How might we have to imagine the Middle East if there were a political thaw between Iran and Saudi Arabia? Could Turkey leave NATO in the near future? What would happen if security-related EU databases were successfully hacked; if South Korea were to arm itself with nuclear weapons; or if an American woman were to head the United Nations? Of course, these situations, as explored in the SWP’s latest Foresight research paper, are only hypothetical. Why address them? Because unexpected events have abounded in international politics in recent years. Brexit; the election of Donald Trump as US President; and Russia’s annexation of Crimea are only the most striking examples. Science and politics should therefore ready themselves for likely future surprises. The Foresight research paper aims to assist with this. We cannot and do not want to predict the future. However, with the help of systematic foresight we can better prepare for unplanned situations. This means improving our view of conceivable – albeit unlikely – developments that would seriously impact on German and European foreign and security policy. It also includes reviewing previous expectations – as this research paper likewise tackles. What actually happened to the battery revolution that was supposed to secure our power supply? Did the negotiation process on the UK’s withdrawal from the EU unfold as experts had anticipated? Such reviews are instructive, and can be used to gain insights for the future.

Table of Contents

Lars Brozus
Introduction: Improving Foresight in Science and Politics
p. 5–9

Rayk Hähnlein, Markus Kaim and Günter Seufert
Turkey Leaves NATO
p. 10–15

Matthias Schulze, Raphael Bossong and Marcel Dickow
Cyber Sabotage of EU Internal Security Databases
p. 16–20

Stephan Roll and Azadeh Zamirirad
Détente in the Gulf Region – Saudi Arabia and Iran Agree on Zones of Influence
p. 21–25

Lars Brozus
2022: The First Female Secretary-General of the United Nations
p. 26–30

Hanns Günther Hilpert and Oliver Meier
“Seoul Goes Nuclear”: How South Korea Became a Nuclear Weapon State
p. 31–35

Kirsten Westphal
Foresight 2013: The Beautiful Energy World of 2021 with Batteries – A Halfway Check
p. 36–39

Nicolai von Ondarza
Brexit Revisited: Review of the Foresight Analysis of 2013 on the UK’s Withdrawal from the EU
p. 40–44

Appendix
p. 45–46

Abbreviations
p. 45

The Authors
p. 46

SWP Comment

Lidia Averbukh, Margarete Klein
Russia-Israel Relationship Transformed by Syria Conflict

Political Interests Overshadow Social and Economic Ties


Laura von Daniels
On US Government Trade Policy

Trump’s ‘America First’ Policy Puts Pressure on the EU