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Donald Trump next to a blue wall with the NATO logo on it

US President Donald Trump leaves the stage at the NATO summit in The Hague.

Foreign and Security Policy

Trump’s foreign and security policy has become increasingly unpredictable. Trump is raising doubts about alliances and partners in Asia and Europe, and he is more or less openly casting doubt on US military support and security guarantees. Uncertainty is growing, particularly among partners such as Ukraine and Taiwan, which are heavily dependent on American military support. At the same time, Trump has repeatedly raised expectations about his abilities to resolve conflicts with antagonistic regimes such as Russia and China, but also Iran and North Korea. He continues to make provocative statements about US territorial ambitions in Canada, Greenland, Panama, and Gaza.

The foreign policy elites of both parties continue to see the rise of China as a key strategic challenge – a perception reflected in Trump’s trade war with the country. However, it is unclear whether, and under what conditions, Trump would be prepared to de-escalate relations with China. In the Middle East, the Trump administration is unconditionally on Israel’s side. The military strikes against the Houthis and Trump’s decision to bomb Iran’s nuclear facilities show that this administration has not completely renounced the use of military means in the region either. Trump relies on close economic relations with the Gulf states without preconditions. Relations with Iran remain the linchpin of US Middle East policy, as underlined by the intervention in the war on the side of Israel.

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