Christopher Dashwood, Kay Möller † (eds.)

North Korean Scenarios (1999-2003) and Responses of the European Union

SWP-Conflict Prevention Network (SWP-CPN)

Baden-Baden Nomos Verlagsgesellschaft, December 1998, 133 Pages ISBN 3-7890-6356-8 [AMP, Bd. 60]


The Koreas

This edition assesses the danger of violent conflict in North Korea, stimulated by fundamental economic weaknesses and regional instability. It further examines possible impacts on international security.


A series of recent events on the Korean peninsula have threatened to unravel the fragile stand-off which was a result of the 1994 Agreed Framework. There is general agreement in capitals both in the region and further afield that even if North Korea is able to ‘muddle through’ in the medium term, its fundamental economic weaknesses mean that there will ultimately be some form of realignment on the peninsula. This volume assesses the most likely scenarios for such a realignment over the next five years.



The first section explains the background factors determining when (or whether) reunification will take place. The second examines the relationship of the European Union vis-à-vis North Korea. The final chapters call on Brussels to take a more holistic view by also considering regional and international stability when dealing with Pyongyang, and in particular to work more closely with Washington and its partners in the region, Seoul and Tokyo.

While this volume offers some advice to policy makers on how to avoid any destabilising effects as a result of a reunification, it will also be a valuable resource for the more general reader with an interest in Northeast Asia.



SWP Comment

Alexandra Sakaki
Japan-South Korea Relations – A Downward Spiral

More than “Just” Historical Issues

Matthias Schulze
Cyber Deterrence is Overrated

Analysis of the Deterrent Potential of the New US Cyber Doctrine and Lessons for Germany’s “Active Cyber Defence”

SWP Research Paper

Marco Overhaus
A Matter of Credibility

Conventional and Nuclear Security Commitments of the United States in Europe

Christian Wagner
India’s Africa Policy