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Three scenarios
Three scenarios
In making these predictions, have to factor in North Korea's motivations. That is, of course, just as unpredictable as whether U.S. policy will continue to evolve or not.
Of course, always in North Korea's interests to call into question whether negotiations will continue or not continue as well as putting the spotlight on its actions that make everyone nervous. That softens up everyone else.
But right now, I assume Pyongyang has not made up its mind one way or another about whether it wants a negotiated agreement, whether it wants a nuclear arsenal or whether it wants both. And as I mentioned earlier, we have no idea what is going on with North Korea's nuclear program, particularly the spent fuel. So Pyongyang may feel it can have its cake and eat it also.
Looking into the future over the next year, there are three possible scenarios.
SCENARIO I - Uneasy stalemate until after the next American election -
May be part of North Korea's regime change strategy to drag out talks until then. May not understand US politics that well but they do understand the consequences of regime change in US having experienced the results of 2000 and also understand differing foreign policy perspectives in Washington.
Also, as I said earlier, we have little knowledge of what is going on with DPRK nuclear program. Could be it is busily (and secretly) building up its capabilities. Buying time might be important.
Also may be in U.S. Administration's interests. No further problems before election. Iraq is enough. Interested in keeping this issue off front page. Strangely unconcerned about our lack of knowledge of nuclear developments.
Just look at pace of current discussions - one meeting for about two days every four months. Not hard to drag that out.
SCENARIO II - Six Party Talks Collapse -
Some Americans - Jack Pritchard - are saying that this next round of Six Party talks will make or break the process.
I would tend to disagree. But collapse may happen. It may be that my analysis is wrong; the U.S. position is not moderating and indeed, Washington finds itself unable to make the compromises necessary to sustain talks.
Or, for some reason, North Korea decides it isn't interested in reaching an agreement and finds some pretext for withdrawing from the negotiations. Pyongyang might then take actions that make it increasingly difficult for anyone to return to the negotiating table, such as conduct a nuclear test.
Not clear what would happen then - situation could rapidly deteriorate or both sides could try to maintain calm and find some way to get back to table.
SCENARIO III - Slow Progress -
Assumes US and North Korean policies continue to evolve and both have the patience to stay at the negotiating table.
Does not necessarily mean this will be a smooth process. Road may be extremely bumpy bordering on outright crisis.
That was essentially what happened in 1993-1994. Negotiations started in June 1993 and did not conclude until about 18 months later. During those 18 months, discussions broke down a number of times, even bringing the US and DPRK close to war in June 1994.
May be in for a similar roller coaster ride today with no guarantee that all the parties involved will be able to stick it out.