Barbara Lippert, Volker Perthes (eds.)

Expect the Unexpected

Ten Situations to Keep an Eye On

SWP Research Paper 2012/RP 01, January 2012, 49 Pages

The individual elements that come together to create the crises and problems politicians and policy-makers find themselves dealing with are generally already well-known. It is their interaction that is unpredictable, and therefore not plannable. Unplanned situations are increasingly becoming the norm, especially in the international context, as globalisation accelerates the speed of events and the number of actors exerting direct or indirect influence grows apace. Of course we cannot predict the exact situations in the foreign policy and security environment that German politicians will have to respond and adapt to. This study outlines possible future scenarios that are deserving of special attention because the situations they could create would present great challenges to Germany and Europe.

We present ten conceivable situations of this kind chosen from different fields of foreign and security policy; situations with which Germany, the European Union and the international community could find themselves unexpectedly confronted. The themes range from major disruption of Saudi oil exports through the idea that the Americans or Chinese might apply enormously risky technologies to tackle climate change to the potential impact of secession movements within EU member-states.

Table of Contents

Foreword
p.5-6

Guido Steinberg / Kirsten Westphal
»Pumps Dry«: No More Oil from Saudi Arabia
p.7-10

Stephan Roll
»A Radiant Future«? Nuclear Power in the Arab World
p.11-14

Susanne Dröge
Geoengineering Looming: Climate Control the American or Chinese Way
p.15-18

Oliver Geden
The End of Climate Policy as We Knew It
p.19-22

Daniela Schwarzer
Eurozone Crisis: Danger of Blockade by Net Contributors
p.23-26

Kai-Olaf Lang / Nicolai von Ondarza
The Return of Moving Borders? Secession and Regional Independence within the European Union
p.27-30

Dušan Reljic
Border Changes on the Cards again in the Western Balkans
p.31-34

Günter Seufert
Cyprus Divided: An Outcome of European Disunity and Turkish Strength
p.35-38

Asiem El Difraoui
The Arab Spring: A Golden Opportunity for Global Jihad?
p.39-42

Hanns Günther Hilpert
End Game in North Korea: Will Kim III Endure?
p.43-47

Abbreviations
p.48

Authors
p.49

SWP Comment

Lars Brozus
(Not) Lost in Foresight

Structuring Futures Complexity in a Politically Meaningful Way


Kirsten Westphal
Nord Stream 2 – Germany’s Dilemma