The individual elements that come together to create the crises and problems politicians and policy-makers find themselves dealing with are generally already well-known. It is their interaction that is unpredictable, and therefore not plannable. Unplanned situations are increasingly becoming the norm, especially in the international context, as globalisation accelerates the speed of events and the number of actors exerting direct or indirect influence grows apace. Of course we cannot predict the exact situations in the foreign policy and security environment that German politicians will have to respond and adapt to. This study outlines possible future scenarios that are deserving of special attention because the situations they could create would present great challenges to Germany and Europe.
We present ten conceivable situations of this kind chosen from different fields of foreign and security policy; situations with which Germany, the European Union and the international community could find themselves unexpectedly confronted. The themes range from major disruption of Saudi oil exports through the idea that the Americans or Chinese might apply enormously risky technologies to tackle climate change to the potential impact of secession movements within EU member-states.
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