Between Political Alignment and Hedging Their Bets
SWP Comment 2013/C 22, 12.08.2013, 8 Pages Research AreasIn the efforts to topple the Syrian regime, it has been widely assumed that the Syrian business community – and in particular the economic elite – could and would play a major role. In this view, economic paralysis induced by actions of the elite would place tremendous pressure on the regime and contribute to its collapse. Syria's business elite have adopted various political strategies that range from aligning themselves with regime or opposition forces to hedging their bets in favor of a political outcome that ensures their continued access to power and wealth in post-revolution Syria. To date, the severe contraction of the economy and the movement of businesspeople outside of Syria have not had demonstrable effects on the regime's resilience and the cohesion of its security apparatus. As the armed struggle continues, the business elite will remain entrenched in their political strategies unless there is a dramatic shift in power. Meanwhile, German and European policymakers should attempt to maintain communication with the elite and encourage policies in the post-conflict period that support their repatriation and inclusion in the reconstruction process.