After winning the first round, Erdoğan is favourite to win the presidential run-off on May 28. The incumbent fell short of an outright majority, but came very close with 49.5 per cent of the vote in the first round. His rival, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu of the opposition Nation Alliance, received 44.89 per cent of the vote. In parliament, the Justice and Development Party (AKP) remains the largest party despite losing votes - and the People's Alliance has a majority.
As the presidential candidate of a heterogeneous coalition of six parties from across the political spectrum, Kılıçdaroğlu's biggest challenge is to unite and mobilise the opposition behind his candidacy. The Labour and Freedom Alliance, which includes the pro-Kurdish Green and Left Party (YSP) as well as smaller left-wing parties, is also supporting the Republican People's Party (CHP) leader's candidacy. Kılıçdaroğlu is appealing to nationalist voters to make up the difference. However, as the election results show, he has not yet succeeded in winning the full support of nationalists outside the Erdoğan camp.
Erdoğan and Kılıçdaroğlu differ on almost every issue, including Turkey's governance system, and their understanding of democracy, and the management of the country’s economy and foreign policy. The election results will therefore be crucial for the future of the country. Even if Erdoğan is expected to win, the margin of victory will be important in shaping some of his future policies.
This „In Focus“ page brings together various publications providing analysis on the different agendas of the ruling coalition and the opposition parties, their respective electoral strategies and chances, and forecasts of post-election scenarios.
In addition, you can find more information on the elections in the regular roundup of the CATS Network.
Turkey/CATS (Deputy Head of CATS)
As Turkey heads to the polls on May 14, many fear that President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan might not respect the election results if he is defeated. Aslı Aksoy and Salim Çevik argue that a violent rejection of the transfer of power is unlikely.
Turkey will soon vote for a new parliament and president. With the electoral process lacking in fairness, there are fears of fraud. Aslı Aksoy and Salim Çevik explain why this is unlikely.
On May 14, Turkish voters head to the polls. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is running for reelection. Six opposition parties have united to compete against him. Hürcan Asli Aksoy and Salim Çevik are taking a look at the candidates, the prospect of political change and how the results could impact relations between Turkey and the EU. Host: Esme Nicholson.
CATS joined the Delegation to the EU-Türkiye Joint Parliamentary Committee at the European Parliament (EP).
Prosecution of Istanbul mayor is the latest in a series of moves designed to abolish the competitive dimension of Turkey’s political system, argue Salim Çevik and Aslı Aksoy.
Despite inflationary headwinds and contrary to most central banks, Turkey’s Monetary Policy Committee surprises with another rate cut. Jens Bastian and Berk Esen see this as a calculated political move.
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