Daniela Kietz and Anne Lauenroth on the European elections results, the performance of populist parties and turnout rates.
Point of View, 28.05.2014 Research AreasDaniela Kietz and Anne Lauenroth on the European elections results, the performance of populist parties and turnout rates.
Europe went to the polls. What are the main results?
Daniela Kietz: The European People's Party (EPP) will stay the strongest political group in the EP despite losing seats. The balance of power between the two main political groups, the EPP and the Socialists and Democrats (S&D), will thus be equalised. In practice we will see in most votes in the EP a grand coalition of the two main political groups joined by the Liberals, Greens, Conservatives or Left depending on the dossier. It is important to note that it will remain possible to form centre-left or centre-right coalitions.
That was deemed unlikely due to the anticipated gains of fringe parties in the EP.
Daniela Kietz: True. The new majorities in the EP will make polarisation more difficult but it seems to remain possible. According to the provisional results, the Liberals will continue to be the kingmakers that decide whether a centre-left or centre-right coalition is built. Despite the losses they faced. Final conclusions about potential coalitions, however, can only be drawn when the new parties that entered the EP – e.g. the Italian Five-Star-Movement – have decided on their affiliations.
How do you evaluate the performance of right-wing populist parties in these European elections?
Daniela Kietz: Overall the right wing populist and extremist parties gained more votes than before. They will, however, not have more than 80, maximum 90 of the 751 seats available in the EP – compared to the more or less 60 seats they had in the last legislature.
Will they be able to form a joint political group in the EP?
Daniela Kietz: The right wing fringe parties differ enormously in background and as regards major issues. We will surely see the attempt of these parties to form one or two political groups – whether this will succeed, however, is doubtful.
Will these parties be able to influence the decision-making processes in the EP?
Daniela Kietz: Probably not. Due to their size, incoherence and low capacity to form a coalition – i.e. marginalised by the main political groups in the EP – their influence is limited. Their strength, however, will be revealed at the national level. They will more than ever be able to drive national politics. The French and British governments, in particular, will, under this domestic pressure, have difficulties pursuing a constructive European policy. Furthermore, the right wing populists will use the European stage to uphold their slogans – not only in view of the next European elections.
Anne Lauenroth: The elections thereby amplify the division lines in the EU. It is not the partisan competition that attracts attention but those between the national and European levels. It will therefore be crucial that the constructive actors in the EU find ways to ease the crisis-driven centrifugal forces and hold Europe together against the simple solutions radicals and populists offer.
Will the new balance of power in the EP affect the topical agenda-setting?
Daniela Kietz: Sensitive issues such as data protection and civil rights that figured prominently on the agenda already in the last legislature will stay: on the one hand, because the driving forces behind these issues, the Greens, almost maintained their number of seats in the EP; on the other hand, because on these issues they will be able to form a coalition with Liberals, Social Democrats and the Left.
One reason for the good performance of right wing populist parties might have to do with the low turnout rate that stagnates around 43 per cent. Wasn’t the initiative to nominate European lead candidates for the Commission Presidency supposed to change that?
Anne Lauenroth: If you take the European-wide turnout rate as the indicator, then no, it did not change anything. There are, however, variations among states. While in the majority of countries less people went to the polls there were other countries where the turnout rate increased. The Front National in France and the UKIP in the United Kingdom, but also the Radical Left Coalition in Greece in particular, could apparently mobilise their electorate. This has nothing to do with the lead candidate-initiative.
So the initiative failed completely?
Anne Lauenroth: In some of the home countries of the lead candidates it worked – Germany is a good example, though the mobilisation by the Alternative for Germany and the abolition of the threshold may have impacted on the increased turnout rate, too. In the other countries the lead candidates only played a marginal role or were completely ignored.
Apart from the lead candidates there are other good reasons to be interested in Europe. Why do the political parties fail to get those across?
Anne Lauenroth: It is not true that Europe did not figure in the elections. To the contrary, they were highly politicised. Several national political parties did campaign on Europe, however not along partisan but pro- and anti-EU lines that in different countries were more or less pronounced.
Does that mean that there was no debate on European policies?
Anne Lauenroth: Less. The problem is that most of the topics that are co-decided in the EP such as banking regulation or trade policy so far do not resonate with voters. National political parties thus lack incentives to raise these issues in public debates. Consequently, this contributes to their low salience. A vicious circle. But there were also glimmers of hope: The Greens both in Germany and France did put the Transatlantic Free Trade Agreement – a clear European issue - at the centre of public debate. Also the offer of the French Socialist and Centrist national candidates to give their spot in the French national television debate to Schulz and Verhofstadt, respectively, was remarkable.
The Interview was conducted by Candida Splett.
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