Muriel Asseburg

Protest, Revolt and Regime Change in the Arab World

Actors, Challenges, Implications and Policy Options

SWP Research Paper 2012/RP 06, February 2012, 71 Pages

The 2011 protests and revolts have opened up a period of political unrest across the Arab world. A good year into what has been termed the Arab Spring, this volume spotlights different dimensions of a process of dynamisation that has spread to touch all Arab countries in some way or other. Pieces on Libya, the small Gulf monarchies, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, and Jordan and Morocco examine the actors behind the protests, reactions by incumbent leaders and initial changes - from cosmetic reform to regime change - along with the concrete challenges faced by the respective societies, political elites and economies. Also, the geopolitical impact of these changes is analysed, in particular their effect on the Arab-Israeli conflict and on Iran’s regional role, and the repercussions of the armed struggle in Libya on its neighbours. Another chapter traces the course and development of the US policy debate about what stance to adopt. Each contribution concludes with concrete policy recommendations. In addition, opportunities for the EU to take action are sketched out for two critical policy fields: energy and migration. The volume is rounded off by ten theses summarising the impact of the Arab Spring on international politics, which extends far beyond North Africa and the Middle East.

Table of Contents

Muriel Asseburg
Introduction: A Region in Unrest
p.5-7

I.Actors

Wolfram Lacher
The Libyan Revolution: Old Elites and New Political Forces
p.11-14

Katja Niethammer
Calm and Squalls: The Small Gulf Monarchies in the Arab Spring
p.15-17

Asiem El Difraoui
No »Facebook Revolution« - But an Egyptian Youth We Know Little About
p.18-20

II.Social, Economic and Political Challenges

Ulrike Freitag
Saudi Arabia: Buying Stability?
p.23-26

Iris Glosemeyer
Yemen Without Ali Abdallah Saleh?
p.27-30

André Bank
Jordan and Morocco: Pacification through Constitutional Reform?
p.31-33

Stephan Roll
Egypt: Complex Challenges of Simultaneous Political and Economic Transformation
p.34-36

III.Geopolitical Implications

Walter Posch
The Arab Spring and the Islamic Republic of Iran: Islamist Vision Meets Political Reality
p.39-41

Muriel Asseburg
The Arab Spring and the Arab-Israeli Conflict: Freedom without Peace?
p.42-46

Wolfram Lacher
Regional Repercussions of Revolution and Civil War in Libya
p.47-50

Johannes Thimm
The United States and the Arab Spring: The End of the Post 9/11 Paradigm
p.51-53

IV.Challenges and Policy Options for Europe

Kirsten Westphal
Testing Times for Energy Security and Cooperation
p.57-60

Steffen Angenendt
Migration from Transition States to the EU: Mobility Partnerships and the Global Approach to Migration
p.61-64

V.The Impact on International Politics

Volker Perthes
Beyond North Africa and the Middle East: The Impact on International Politics
p.67-69

Appendix

Abbreviations
p.70

Authors
p.71

SWP Comments

Severin Fischer
The EU’s New Energy and Climate Policy Framework for 2030

Implications for the German Energy Transition


Anne Wolf
Power Shift in Tunisia

Electoral Success of Secular Parties Might Deepen Polarization