Protest, Revolt and Regime Change in the Arab World
Actors, Challenges, Implications and Policy Options
SWP Research Paper 2012/RP 06, February 2012, 71 Pages
The 2011 protests and revolts have opened up a period of political unrest across the Arab world. A good year into what has been termed the Arab Spring, this volume spotlights different dimensions of a process of dynamisation that has spread to touch all Arab countries in some way or other. Pieces on Libya, the small Gulf monarchies, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, and Jordan and Morocco examine the actors behind the protests, reactions by incumbent leaders and initial changes - from cosmetic reform to regime change - along with the concrete challenges faced by the respective societies, political elites and economies. Also, the geopolitical impact of these changes is analysed, in particular their effect on the Arab-Israeli conflict and on Iran’s regional role, and the repercussions of the armed struggle in Libya on its neighbours. Another chapter traces the course and development of the US policy debate about what stance to adopt. Each contribution concludes with concrete policy recommendations. In addition, opportunities for the EU to take action are sketched out for two critical policy fields: energy and migration. The volume is rounded off by ten theses summarising the impact of the Arab Spring on international politics, which extends far beyond North Africa and the Middle East.
Table of Contents
Introduction: A Region in Unrest
The Libyan Revolution: Old Elites and New Political Forces
Calm and Squalls: The Small Gulf Monarchies in the Arab Spring
Asiem El Difraoui
No »Facebook Revolution« - But an Egyptian Youth We Know Little About
II.Social, Economic and Political Challenges
Saudi Arabia: Buying Stability?
Yemen Without Ali Abdallah Saleh?
Jordan and Morocco: Pacification through Constitutional Reform?
Egypt: Complex Challenges of Simultaneous Political and Economic Transformation
The Arab Spring and the Islamic Republic of Iran: Islamist Vision Meets Political Reality
The Arab Spring and the Arab-Israeli Conflict: Freedom without Peace?
Regional Repercussions of Revolution and Civil War in Libya
The United States and the Arab Spring: The End of the Post 9/11 Paradigm
IV.Challenges and Policy Options for Europe
Testing Times for Energy Security and Cooperation
Migration from Transition States to the EU: Mobility Partnerships and the Global Approach to Migration
V.The Impact on International Politics
Beyond North Africa and the Middle East: The Impact on International Politics